Canadians cast their votes today in an election heavily shaped by the United States' influence.
Earlier this year, the Liberal Party lagged behind the Conservatives by a wide margin in polls. However, the political landscape shifted dramatically after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to annex Canada and implemented steep tariffs. These measures sparked economic concerns, including predictions of a recession, and galvanized Canadian voters, propelling the Liberals to the forefront by centering their campaign on opposition to Trump.
Traditionally, Canadian voters select local parliamentary representatives, and the party with the majority elects the prime minister. This election, however, has taken on a highly personal dimension, with many citizens focusing less on party allegiance and more on which leader they believe can best negotiate with the United States.
The central question for many Canadians is: which candidate is most capable of defending the nation against perceived American threats? While all parties oppose tariffs and annexation, they differ in how strongly they criticize U.S. policies.
This briefing outlines the stakes of this unexpected electoral contest and introduces the two primary contenders.
A Banker and a Politician Vie for Leadership
What qualities do Canadians seek in their next prime minister?
Pierre Poilievre, the 45-year-old leader of the Conservative Party, adopts a more moderate stance than Trump on issues such as immigration and government size, aiming to reduce both but without drastic cuts.
Nevertheless, Poilievre shares certain traits with the former U.S. president: he engages in culture war rhetoric, criticizes "woke ideology," supports cryptocurrencies, and often challenges mainstream media. He has also proposed defunding the national broadcaster. For many Canadians concerned about Trump’s impact, these positions are troubling.
The Conservatives held a substantial lead over the Liberals for several years, during which Justin Trudeau’s government faced declining popularity. Poilievre’s platform focused on tax cuts, crime reduction, expanding housing, and addressing affordability.
However, the political tide turned with Trump’s aggressive policies and Trudeau’s resignation. Mark Carney, a seasoned central banker and corporate executive, emerged as the Liberal Party’s leader, presenting himself as a pragmatic crisis manager and a counterbalance to Trump’s approach.
Carney, 60, sometimes faces criticism for his reserved demeanor and extensive international career, including involvement with elite forums like Davos. Critics label him an elitist, while supporters argue his experience equips him to handle the challenges posed by the U.S. administration.
Following Trudeau’s departure and rising tensions with the U.S., Carney quickly gained momentum. He was elected Liberal leader in March and assumed the role of prime minister. This shift caused Poilievre’s once commanding poll lead to disappear, with Carney’s Liberals now holding a slight advantage as voters prepare to decide.
The Core Issue at Hand
Poilievre’s campaign emphasizes reversing what he describes as a decade of national decline, a message that resonates particularly with voters frustrated by stagnant economic growth, rising inflation, and increasing living costs under the Liberals. Young men have notably responded to his call for change.
In response, Carney has sought to distance himself from Trudeau’s legacy despite having advised him on economic matters in recent years.
Ultimately, this election may hinge on Canadians’ perceptions of the U.S. president’s influence on their future. Will centrist voters hold the Liberals accountable for economic challenges, or will protecting the country’s economy and sovereignty from American pressure take precedence?
The results tonight will provide the answer.
