Romania Faces a Critical Crossroads as Far-Right Candidate Leads Presidential Race

The outcome was anticipated.

In the lead-up to Romania’s first-round presidential elections on May 4, the results seemed predictable. This contest essentially mirrored a previous election held last November, which a far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, initially won. However, the Constitutional Court annulled those elections due to alleged Russian interference and subsequently disqualified Georgescu from running again. Yet, this only removed one figure from the stage. The next far-right contender, George Simion, rose to prominence and secured an even more decisive victory in the first round, capturing 41 percent of the vote.

The situation could worsen. In the upcoming runoff, voters must choose between Simion and Nicusor Dan, an independent candidate who received 21 percent in the first round. Although the race is closer, unless voter turnout markedly increases, Simion appears likely to become Romania’s next president. His self-identification as a Trump-style populist means he would wield significant authority to appoint the prime minister, shape foreign policy, and oversee the military. For a nation of nearly 20 million, this represents a potentially perilous shift.

This rise of the far right is hardly unexpected. It is rooted in decades of economic stagnation and social hardship: chronic underdevelopment, widespread insecurity, and mass emigration have fueled deep public discontent. Simion and his Alliance for the Union of Romanians party capitalize on this anti-establishment sentiment. Meanwhile, traditional political parties have largely failed to address the systemic economic issues that have led to this crisis, further enabling the country’s drift toward far-right politics.

The consequences of Romania’s economic framework are stark. Despite posting respectable GDP growth rates, the country consistently ranks among the lowest in the European Union on critical social metrics. Approximately 28 percent of Romanians face poverty risk, with another 17 percent experiencing severe material deprivation. Although minimum wages have increased over the last decade, the median wage remains just over five euros per hour, roughly one-third of the EU average.

These conditions reflect over thirty years of adherence to free-market policies that have included extensive privatization of industry, reduced labor protections, and cuts to public services. This approach has been supported by notably low tax rates—16 percent for corporations and 10 percent on personal income—creating a low-tax environment that contrasts sharply with the country’s growing budget deficit and increasing national debt.

Political leaders appear largely indifferent to these challenges. Nicusor Dan, Bucharest’s mayor since 2020, has built his reputation on combating corruption and opposing dubious real estate developments. However, he advocates for spending cuts and offers little on social equity. Recently, he described his political stance as right-leaning because it “values work over laziness,” a stance strikingly at odds with Romania’s status as having the second-highest rate of in-work poverty and one of the lowest welfare expenditures in the EU.