The influence of Donald Trump is shaping political landscapes worldwide, election after election, though often not to the former president’s advantage.
In key votes held recently in Canada and Australia, centrist parties experienced a resurgence, while political groups aligned with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement faced setbacks.
Though Trump has been back in power for only three months, his policies—ranging from imposing tariffs to fracturing alliances—have already permeated national political battles across the globe.
While it remains premature to declare a global rise of anti-Trump sentiment, it is evident that voters factor Trump’s presence into their decision-making.
Political Parallels Between Canada and Australia
Canada and Australia share many similarities: political systems, significant mining sectors, and a shared monarch in King Charles. Now, they also share a striking political narrative.
Before Trump’s return to power, the center-left ruling parties in both countries were struggling and appeared vulnerable. Conservative parties, whose leaders echoed Trump’s style and policies, led in polls.
Shortly after Trump’s comeback, political fortunes shifted in both nations: incumbent center-left politicians outpaced conservative challengers and secured victories. Notably, the conservative leaders in both countries not only lost their elections but also their parliamentary seats.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned with an explicitly anti-Trump message, centering his campaign on the threats posed by the U.S. president to Canada. His Australian counterpart, Anthony Albanese, did not adopt the same approach but nonetheless benefited from widespread rejection of Trump.
Conservative leaders faced strong voter backlash. Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia struggled to distance themselves from the damaging association with Trump.
Dutton withdrew or softened some Trump-inspired policies when they proved unpopular, such as drastic public sector cuts. Poilievre, however, remained closely aligned with Trump’s approach, even after the U.S. president challenged Canadian sovereignty.
Charles Edel, an Australian professor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described Australia’s election as a “landslide,” partly attributing the outcome to the implicit influence of Trump, despite the election’s focus on domestic issues.
“The similarities with the Canadian elections suggest that conservative fortunes declined as Trump’s tariffs and attacks on U.S. allies intensified,” Edel noted in an email.
In Canada, some interpreted the Australian election results as a sign of solidarity from their distant cousins. An online meme cheerfully proclaimed “Albo up!”—using Albanese’s nickname—as a play on Carney’s anti-Trump slogan inspired by hockey: “Elbows up!”
Seeking Stability Amid Turbulence
Carney benefited from voters’ perception that he would provide steady leadership in navigating Trump’s unpredictable economic impact on Canada, whose economy is deeply intertwined with the United States and already strained by tariffs and uncertainty. His economic policymaking experience was also an asset.
Halfway across the world in Singapore, a similar appeal to stability appeared to aid the ruling People’s Action Party.
Last month, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned Parliament that Singapore would face greater consequences from new U.S. tariffs due to its dependence on global trade. He urged citizens to prepare for further shocks and forecast slower growth.
Like Carney, who declared the old Canada-U.S. relationship “over,” Wong issued a somber caution before elections. “The global conditions that enabled Singapore’s success over recent decades may no longer hold,” he said.
On election day, voters returned the party to power in a result that was never in doubt but was seen as reinforced by the party’s “flight to safety” strategy.
“This is another example of the Trump effect,” said Cherian George, an author on Singaporean politics. “Deep concerns over Trump’s trade wars are driving a decisive number of voters to strongly support the incumbent leader.”
Uneven Impacts Across Europe
In Germany, a key Western ally and the first country to hold national elections after Trump’s return, the Trump effect has been less direct but still perceptible.
Friedrich Merz, set to be sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor, did not gain politically from Trump’s election in the same way recent Canadian and Australian leaders have.
Nevertheless, Trump’s confrontations with Europe over defense and trade did not help Merz before the vote but have since aided his efforts.
Merz succeeded in suspending spending caps in fiscally conservative Germany, easing his path as chancellor by arguing that previous certainties about U.S. commitments to mutual defense no longer apply.
“Do you really believe a U.S. government will continue NATO as before?” Merz asked lawmakers in March.
The alignment of the MAGA sphere with Germany’s far-right AfD party did not help its standing in polls, despite Elon Musk endorsing the party and appearing at one of its events via video.
A British Exception
An unpredictable U.S. president can yield unpredictable consequences for foreign leaders, a reality becoming evident for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Starmer, a center-left leader who won office before Trump’s latest victory, initially earned praise for his formal approach toward the U.S. president.
Unlike Carney, Starmer avoided direct criticism of Trump, sought common ground when possible, and aimed to maintain cordial relations. Following a well-regarded White House visit, even some of his political opponents expressed admiration.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, a Trump ally and leader of the anti-immigration Reform UK party, worked to dispel claims that he sympathized with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Starmer’s momentum waned after failing to translate his successful White House visit into exemptions from U.S. tariffs on British goods.
Last week, his Labour Party suffered significant losses in regional and local elections across parts of England, losing 187 council seats and a parliamentary by-election in a stronghold.
In contrast, Farage’s party achieved remarkable success, winning the by-election, securing two mayoralties, and making sweeping gains. For the first time, his party gained control of local government levels in multiple regions.
