President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for Iran to negotiate a deal before it is too late have been met with skepticism and ridicule across social media and among experts closely monitoring the situation in Iran.
As Israeli military strikes continue, the window for diplomacy appears to have narrowed considerably. Iran canceled scheduled negotiations in Oman last weekend, with its foreign ministry declaring that dialogue would be futile after the United States permitted Israel’s aggressive actions against Iran.
While it may seem unlikely that Iran would return to the negotiating table following such severe attacks, the country’s limited strategic alternatives suggest otherwise.
Iran faces significant setbacks, including the loss of key military leaders, severe damage to air defenses, destruction of missile production and delivery infrastructure, and the weakening of regional proxy forces. Engaging in a prolonged war with Israel or further escalation could prove disastrous. Attempts to rapidly develop a nuclear weapon, though potentially seen as a last resort to regain deterrence, risk provoking direct U.S. military intervention, including strikes targeting Iran’s fortified underground uranium enrichment facilities. Aggression against neighboring states’ oil infrastructure could reverse recent regional rapprochements and invite military retaliation from leaders eager to challenge Tehran. Acts of terrorism or cyberattacks against Israeli or U.S. interests might inflict damage but are unlikely to diminish their resolve and could instead harden opposition.
Currently, Iran appears focused on prolonging the conflict and imposing immediate costs on Israel, hoping that fears of escalation will prompt pressure on Israel to halt its military campaign. However, this strategy may result in continued Israeli airstrikes over an extended period.
Considering these constrained options, a negotiated nuclear agreement might ultimately be more acceptable to Iran than continuing the conflict. Such a deal may differ from Iran’s previous expectations or the 2015 agreement rescinded by the United States, but it could represent a preferable alternative to no deal. Notably, while Iran canceled recent talks in Oman, it has not ruled out the possibility of future negotiations.
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