India and Pakistan Face a Possible Path to De-escalation After Recent Clashes

For two weeks, India vowed a strong retaliation in response to a terrorist attack it attributed to Pakistan, with the key uncertainty being the intensity of its military action.

That uncertainty was resolved in the early hours of Wednesday when Indian fighter jets launched strikes on multiple targets within Pakistan, while Pakistani forces deployed their own aircraft in an attempt to intercept the Indian incursions.

By the end of the day, after the bombardments had ceased and casualties were tallied, both nations assessed the outcomes and found grounds to declare success or to justify further escalation.

India's air assault penetrated deeper into Pakistani territory than at any time in recent decades marked by hostility between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The strikes caused significant destruction, reportedly killing over 20 individuals across six to nine locations, including towns known for sheltering terrorist operatives responsible for attacks against India.

However, evidence also emerged that Pakistan inflicted notable damage. Reports and eyewitness accounts indicate that two or three Indian aircraft were downed on the Indian side of the border—a setback India had hoped to avoid following similar losses during the 2019 exchanges.

The critical question now is whether Pakistan will respond to the strikes on its heartland with retaliatory attacks on Indian soil, potentially escalating the conflict further.