Before dawn, Ukrainian soldiers awoke in a basement hideout near the eastern front line, stretching and packing up their sleeping bags. Most remained underground throughout the day, managing drones via keyboards and remote controls.
At a critical juncture for Ukraine, caught between hopes for a ceasefire and concerns over potential U.S. military aid reductions, the Ukrainian army is investing in a drone initiative aimed at sustaining combat capabilities independently of American weapons.
Should peace talks falter or U.S. arms shipments be halted, Ukraine’s expanding drone program is likely to become increasingly vital. This effort has doubled the number of unmanned systems assembled within Ukraine, primarily small explosive drones launched from basement shelters.
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced further uncertainty by announcing a proposed three-day ceasefire next month, though it remains unclear if this pause will take effect or be honored. This announcement followed a relentless week of conflict, including the deadliest attack on Kyiv in nearly a year, alongside mixed signals from the U.S. administration regarding future support.
While the U.S. President has recently softened his criticism of Ukrainian leaders and condemned Russia’s ongoing bombardment, no new commitments for additional weapons have been made—despite their critical importance.
A cessation of U.S. military aid would leave Ukraine vulnerable along the front and beyond. Its forces rely heavily on Patriot interceptors for defense against Russian ballistic missile strikes targeting Kyiv. The Ukrainian military also lacks medium-range missiles similar to those used in the U.S.-made HIMARS system, crucial for striking Russian troops and equipment before they reach frontline positions.
Ukraine’s prior innovations—such as remote-controlled explosive speedboats that sank significant portions of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet—have been impactful but eventually countered by Russian adaptations.
Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces have previously overcome larger adversaries by adapting battlefield strategies and weapons swiftly. For now, troops remain hopeful that the latest innovation, known as the Drone Line, will help keep Russian forces largely stalled at the front.
“It’s no longer man against man,” said the commander of the squad operating from the eastern Ukraine basement.
This unit pilots first-person view drones, providing operators with a video perspective akin to a front-row seat as bombs target Russian soldiers, vehicles, tanks, and bunkers. Following military protocol, the commander requested to be identified only by his first name and rank, Soldier Artem.
Even before the Drone Line program, Ukraine heavily relied on unmanned weapons, which now account for roughly 70 percent of all casualties on both sides, surpassing combined losses from tanks, artillery, mortars, and landmines, according to the Ukrainian military. While some of these weapons are supplied by the U.S., many drones are assembled domestically using components largely manufactured in China.
The expanded drone initiative, in development since last autumn and formally announced in February, serves as Kyiv’s contingency plan should peace negotiations fail after Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022.
Drones from both sides buzz almost continuously over the battlefield. Russia leads in quantity, but Ukraine holds an edge in quality, often pioneering new technological approaches such as relay drones to extend attack drone range and fiber-optic wire-guided drones resistant to Russian electronic countermeasures.
Overshadowed by ceasefire talks and earlier U.S. skepticism about Ukraine’s prospects without American aid, the drone strategy has nonetheless yielded tangible results, according to military analysts.
It is credited with contributing to the three-month slowdown of the Russian offensive. Russian forces that surged last autumn have been largely stalled since January despite costly assaults.
The Russian offensive peaked in November, capturing approximately 722 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, according to an analysis linked to the Ukrainian military. By March, territorial gains had dropped to just 132 square kilometers. During the winter, Moscow’s main success was pushing Ukraine out of nearly all of Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukraine’s program aims to expand four drone battalions into drone regiments, each growing from roughly 700 to 2,500 soldiers equipped with first-person view drones, bomb-dropping drones, and unmanned ground systems armed with machine guns.
Wars often drive innovation, such as radar’s invention during World War II and night-vision goggles in Vietnam. Yet Ukraine’s drone strategy also stems from a significant weakness after more than three years of conflict: declining motivation to enlist. As draft evasion becomes widespread, replenishing forces remains a challenge.
Drones do not replace soldiers; operating a single first-person view drone can require up to four personnel. During last week’s missions in northeast Ukraine, a drone platoon included a pilot, navigator, armorer, and relay drone operator.
However, recruiting for these roles is easier than for infantry positions in frontline trenches.
With fewer troops to lose than Russia, Ukraine seeks to limit direct confrontations. Drones play a crucial role in this strategy.
The approach focuses on a roughly 29-kilometer-deep belt behind the Russian frontline. Saturating this airspace with reconnaissance and attack drones aims to prevent Russian troops from massing for assaults. Flying at speeds around 130 kilometers per hour, drones can detect and engage any movement on the ground ahead.
A leading analyst observed that the drone program is “fairly effective,” while also noting contributing factors such as Russian material shortages and harsh winter conditions.
The intended goal is to create a force capable of blocking large sections of the front independently of U.S. support.
The program plans gradual expansion, with experienced drone pilots training soldiers from other units to complicate Russian logistics, air defense, and electronic warfare operations behind the front line, according to Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles Regiment.
“The objective is to cover the entire frontline with drones,” he said.
Last year, the Ukrainian army tested this approach when Congressional Republicans stalled supplemental funding. Artillery ammunition ran so low that some crews resorted to firing smoke rounds. In one frontline sector near Chasiv Yar, drone crews countered with a series of strikes that disrupted the Russian offensive.
Drones cost between $500 and $750 each, significantly less than large-caliber artillery shells, which cost around $3,000 apiece.
Other militaries are paying attention. The U.S. Marine Corps established its first experimental attack drone squadron this year, flying first-person view drones.
Soldier Artem serves in the Achilles Regiment, one of the units recently expanded under the drone program. Like about 20 percent of the regiment’s recruits, he was a former computer programmer working in Ukraine’s growing outsourcing industry prior to the Russian invasion.
Though operating about five kilometers behind the frontline, drone crews remain exposed to war’s dangers.
On Friday, a Ukrainian drone team spotted a Russian soldier running across a green floodplain near the Oskil River, attempting to reach shelter in a nearby grove. The drone’s final video frame showed it locked on at close range, suggesting the soldier could not escape.
Later that day, Ukrainian soldiers preparing drones for launch stayed hidden as a Russian drone buzzed overhead before crashing nearby with a thunderous explosion.
