Measuring the Erosion of Democracy: When Opposition Becomes Risky

What indicators will reveal to Americans that their democracy has deteriorated?

Recognizing authoritarianism today is more challenging than in the past. Unlike historical autocrats who seized power through force, many contemporary authoritarian leaders secure their positions through elections. Instead of outright repression, they manipulate public institutions—such as law enforcement and regulatory bodies—to target opponents and marginalize independent media and civil society. This phenomenon, known as competitive authoritarianism, describes systems where elections occur but incumbents systematically abuse their authority to disadvantage challengers. Examples include nations like Hungary, India, Serbia, Turkey, and Venezuela under Hugo Chávez.

The transition to competitive authoritarianism often unfolds subtly. Since governments deploy ostensibly legal methods—defamation lawsuits, tax audits, politically motivated probes—to weaken adversaries, the public may not immediately recognize the erosion of democratic norms. In Venezuela, for instance, many citizens continued to identify their country as democratic well into Chávez’s prolonged rule.

A practical way to evaluate whether a democracy has shifted toward authoritarianism is by examining the repercussions faced by those who oppose the government. In functioning democracies, individuals can freely express dissent, support opposition candidates, or peacefully protest without fear of retaliation. The recognition that legitimate opposition is essential—allowing citizens to challenge and replace their leaders through elections—is a cornerstone of democratic governance.

In authoritarian regimes, however, dissent carries tangible consequences. Those who challenge the government—whether politicians, media outlets, businesses, or civic institutions—may face punitive actions such as baseless legal charges, regulatory harassment, loss of funding, or intimidation. Journalists, activists, and critics risk harassment or violence orchestrated by government allies.

When citizens hesitate to criticize or oppose their government due to credible threats of retribution, the society can no longer be considered a full democracy.

By this standard, there are indications that the United States has entered a phase of competitive authoritarianism. The Trump administration’s use of government agencies as instruments to punish dissent and impose costs on critics has raised the stakes for opposition across diverse segments of the population.