The End of an Era: Why Manufacturing Jobs Won't Return

For over six decades, my family operated a modest paint manufacturing business in Long Island City, Queens, located near the iconic neon Pepsi-Cola sign across the East River from Manhattan. Both that factory and the adjacent Pepsi-Cola bottling plant have since disappeared, becoming part of the hundreds of industrial sites that once dotted the city.

In their place, gleaming condominium towers with multimillion-dollar price tags now dominate the skyline. Trendy eateries have replaced traditional blue-collar diners. Over just a few decades, New York’s industrial foundation has vanished, yet the city has grown more populous and prosperous than ever before — a testament to the process of 'creative destruction' described by economist Joseph Schumpeter.

Despite ongoing political campaigns aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing, there is little indication that a wholesale return to the industrial past is realistic or necessary. Just as New York thrived by transitioning to a postindustrial economy, the nation as a whole can prosper without attempting to reclaim lost manufacturing ground.

It is acknowledged that the easing of trade restrictions, especially after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerated the decline of manufacturing jobs. In hindsight, the loss of roughly one million manufacturing positions during the 2000s should have prompted more robust efforts to assist displaced workers in adapting to new economic realities.

Nonetheless, efforts to restore those jobs are misguided. During the peak years of American manufacturing, factory workers earned wages far above those in the service sector. That wage premium has steadily diminished over the decades and, by some accounts, has vanished entirely.

Moreover, manufacturing jobs often involve monotonous and physically demanding tasks. For example, assembling devices like iPhones requires repetitive motions over long hours, frequently for wages below the national minimum standard. It is unsurprising that many Americans, especially younger generations, find traditional factory work unattractive. Currently, nearly 500,000 manufacturing positions remain unfilled across the country.