Cardinals Divided Over Pope Francis' Legacy as Conclave Begins

They laid him to rest and mourned his passing, yet the focus remains firmly on Pope Francis as cardinals convene to elect his successor.

More than two weeks after Francis' death, the cardinals who began voting in the Sistine Chapel have been signaling whether they intend to uphold his legacy, reverse his reforms, or find a compromise.

Through homilies, public and private discussions, and especially in daily meetings behind Vatican walls, the electors have been treating the conclave as a referendum on Francis’ impact. They are also weighing the continuation of the so-called “Francis effect”—the belief that a charismatic, inclusive leader with a strong moral compass can attract new followers and bring lapsed Catholics back to the Church.

“There are varied opinions,” said Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Sweden, a potential papal candidate. Some favor a pontiff “who can follow in Francis’ footsteps,” while others firmly oppose that direction.

Francis’ legacy is rich with transformative efforts. During his 12 years as pope, he made headlines worldwide with groundbreaking statements that resonated with liberals, both Catholic and secular. He famously asked, “Who am I to judge?” regarding homosexual priests and allowed blessings of same-sex unions. He advocated for migrants, urged global leaders to tackle climate change, and criticized the excesses of capitalism and poverty exploitation.

Internally, he expanded the College of Cardinals to include representatives from the “peripheries”—regions distant from the Vatican with rapidly growing Catholic populations, including areas where Catholics are a significant minority. He also reached an agreement with the Chinese government aiming to boost the Church’s presence there, though critics worried it might compromise the Church’s independence.

Francis invited laypeople, including women, to participate in bishop meetings envisioned as key decision-making bodies. He reformed the Vatican bureaucracy, introduced measures to increase transparency in the Church’s notoriously opaque finances, and enacted decrees to hold church leaders accountable for sexual abuse cases.

While some cardinals wish to advance these reforms or even push for more radical changes, others aim to roll them back. However, the sharpest disagreements revolve around contentious issues Francis approached cautiously without fully addressing.

These unsettled topics include the ordination of women as deacons, priestly celibacy requirements, and the Church’s teachings on homosexuality and contraception.

Beyond the Church, Francis was an uncommon media figure, widely admired both by secular audiences and the faithful alike. Many viewed him as an ethical compass amid an increasingly confusing political landscape. While numerous world leaders closed their doors to immigrants and neglected the poor, Francis championed unconditional acceptance, a stance that resonated with believers and non-believers alike.

Yet, this broad popularity sometimes made him a target of criticism within Church ranks.

“The Church needs to be returned to the Catholics,” said Cardinal Camillo Ruini, a conservative Italian figure influential during the pontificates of John Paul II and Benedict XVI. He noted that Francis’ supporters tend to be laypeople, while opponents are often practicing believers.

Others argued the conclave should not be a contest of global popularity. Cardinal Mauro Piacenza dismissed calls for a Francis sequel as “sentimental.” Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller of Germany, a conservative who led the Church’s doctrinal office until Francis dismissed him, claimed that the advocates for “a pope for all” were mainly the media and the Church’s traditional opponents, including atheists.

Despite this, conservatives form a minority among the voting cardinals. Francis enjoys strong support within the Church, particularly among cardinals eligible to vote, 80 percent of whom he appointed. Most appear committed to following at least part of the path he laid out.

“Since we are at a moment when everyone is rethinking the nature of the Church, I hope the new pope will continue moving in the same direction as Francis,” said Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi, Archbishop of Tokyo.

If not, some cardinals fear the Church will become even more isolated from modernity and the lived realities of its members.

“This cannot be the time to yield to the instinct to go backward,” said Cardinal Baldassare Reina, an Italian elevated by Francis, during last week’s homily in St. Peter’s Square. Among the many Francis appointees from around the world, that instinct runs strong.

Even if the conclave selects a pope aligned with Francis’ legacy, “there is no guarantee the future will be a straight line continuing from Francis,” said Archbishop Paul Gallagher, Vatican foreign minister and close collaborator of the late pope. “The next pope will have his own convictions and contributions, which may emphasize different issues than Francis did.”

Francis was a complex leader who sometimes contradicted himself and defied expectations, leaving cardinals divided rather than clearly for or against him. They are fragmented into groups based on ideology, geography, preferred issues, cultural differences, shared languages, and personal rivalries.

Some Church analysts believe this fragmentation may lead to a consensus candidate emerging from the conclave.

Such a pope might resemble Francis in pastoral style but be more disciplined in public statements or compensate for less charisma with firm governance. Potential successors have mostly avoided public commentary on divisive issues Francis raised but did not resolve, such as women deacons, married priests, or communion for divorced and remarried Catholics. Francis considered himself traditional and showed few signs before his election of pushing boundaries.

While multiple scenarios are possible, what is certain is that the new pope will leave his own mark. The critical question, some analysts say, is whether the pope’s vision will reach the parish level where Catholics practice their faith.

“The tragedy of Pope Francis is that people heard him, embraced him, and thought: ‘This is the kind of priest I want in my parish,’” said Reverend Thomas J. Reese, a veteran Vatican analyst. “Then they went to their parish and didn’t find Francis.”