Privately, some Israeli military officials have concluded that Palestinians in Gaza face widespread starvation unless humanitarian aid deliveries resume within weeks, according to defense insiders familiar with the enclave's conditions.
For months, Israel has insisted that its blockade on food and fuel to Gaza does not pose a significant threat to civilian life, despite warnings from the United Nations and aid organizations about an imminent famine.
In recent days, Israeli military personnel monitoring Gaza's humanitarian situation have cautioned leadership that unless the blockade is swiftly lifted, many areas within the territory will likely run out of sufficient food to meet basic daily nutritional needs, defense officials said on condition of anonymity.
Officials emphasized that, since ramping up humanitarian deliveries takes time, urgent measures are required to ensure the aid supply system can be rapidly restored to prevent widespread starvation.
An increasing number of Israel's security elite are acknowledging the existence of a hunger crisis in Gaza amid Israel's commitment to dramatically escalate military operations aimed at dismantling Hamas and recovering remaining hostages—goals yet unmet after more than 19 months of conflict. On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the army would resume fighting "with full force to finish the job" and "eliminate Hamas."
Netanyahu's statement coincided with the arrival of the U.S. president in Saudi Arabia during his first major foreign trip since reelection. Notably, the visit excluded Israel, highlighting growing differences between the two leaders on critical security issues facing Israel.
The military analysis exposes a stark contrast between Israel's public stance on the aid blockade and its internal deliberations, revealing that segments of Israel's security establishment have reached conclusions similar to those of major humanitarian organizations, which have long warned about the blockade's dangers.
The assessment also underscores the urgency of Gaza's humanitarian plight: nearly all bakeries and charitable kitchens have shut down, and the United Nations World Food Programme, responsible for aid distribution and shipment coordination, reports having exhausted its food reserves.
On Monday, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a UN-backed initiative monitoring malnutrition, warned that famine in Gaza is imminent. The group stated that if Israel proceeds with its planned military escalation, "the vast majority of people in the Gaza Strip will lack access to food, water, shelter, and medicine."
The Israeli military and Defense Ministry declined to comment on predictions that Gaza is nearing a food crisis. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they could not disclose details of internal discussions but confirmed ongoing daily communication with all relevant agencies and close monitoring of the Gaza situation.
Israel's restrictions on aid to Gaza have been among the most contentious aspects of the conflict. The blockade was imposed in March shortly before a ceasefire with Hamas collapsed. Despite Hamas suffering heavy losses and losing control over much of the territory, it remains entrenched in Gaza.
Israeli officials have stated that the blockade aims to limit Hamas's ability to divert food and fuel intended for civilians for its own benefit. A senior defense official suggested that this strategy might increase the likelihood of Hamas's collapse or prompt the release of more hostages taken during the group's October 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war.
During an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting convened by the United Kingdom, France, and other European nations on Tuesday, the blockade was a central topic. The UN's top humanitarian official criticized Israel for imposing "deliberate and blatant" inhumane conditions on civilians in Gaza and the West Bank.
The official questioned, "What more proof is needed? Will there be decisive action to prevent genocide and uphold international humanitarian law, or will it be said that ‘everything possible was done’?" All 15 council members, except the United States—which has unwaveringly supported Israel throughout the conflict—called for immediate aid access to Gaza.
The Israeli government has repeatedly asserted that the blockade has not caused any shortage of aid to civilians, partly because substantial aid entered Gaza during the truncated ceasefire.
However, humanitarian groups quickly warned that civilians would bear the brunt of the restrictions, which they argue violate international law. These concerns intensified as civilians reported eating only once daily due to soaring food prices. Palestinians interviewed disclosed that flour costs have surged sixtyfold since late February, sparking increased looting.
“Today, the only thing I have eaten is a little bit of expired fava beans from a can,” said Khalil el Halabi, a 71-year-old retired UN official from Gaza City. On Monday, he reported feeling too dizzy and weak to walk and said his weight had dropped from 95 kilograms before the war to approximately 59 kilograms.
El Halabi added that his recently delivered daughter was unable to breastfeed due to insufficient nutrition, and noted that no infant formula was available.
Israel's Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) officials have reached the same conclusions as aid agencies. They continuously assess Gaza’s humanitarian status through communication with local Palestinians, reviewing aid organizations' warehouse inventories, and analyzing the quantity and contents of aid trucks entering Gaza before the blockade.
Officials have privately informed senior military leaders about the deteriorating conditions, increasingly warning that many Gaza residents face starvation within weeks. Last week, an Israeli general briefed the cabinet, stating that supplies would be depleted soon, according to defense and senior government sources.
According to defense officials, Israel’s military leadership acknowledges the crisis's severity and is exploring ways to resume aid deliveries while circumventing Hamas.
Last week, the previous U.S. administration said it was collaborating with Israel on a plan involving private organizations distributing food from several Gaza locations, each serving hundreds of thousands of civilians. The Israeli military would secure these sites’ perimeters, while private security firms would patrol inside.
Aid agencies, including the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, rejected the plan, citing increased risks to civilians. They argued that forcing vulnerable populations to travel longer distances to fewer distribution centers would hinder food access for those most in need. Currently, there are 400 distribution points; the proposed plan would drastically reduce this operational reach.
The UN also warned that the plan would require civilians to cross Israeli military lines regularly, exposing them to heightened risks of detention and interrogation. It further stated that the initiative would accelerate displacement from northern Gaza, as distribution centers would be located far south.
Israeli officials confirmed that if approved, the plan would assist the military in intercepting Hamas militants and relocating civilians from northern to southern Gaza. They stressed that the objective is to separate civilians from combatants, not to increase civilian hardship.
International law experts assert that it is illegal for a country to restrict aid deliveries when aware that such actions will cause starvation.
“Imposing a military blockade knowing it will starve the civilian population constitutes a violation of international law,” said Janina Dill, co-director of the Institute for Ethics, Law, and Armed Conflict at the University of Oxford.
Dill added that although there is some debate over Israel’s obligations toward Gazans, when Israeli officials openly state that the purpose is to extract political and military concessions, it clearly amounts to a war crime.
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