What was expected to be a strong year for travel in the United States has turned into one marked by uncertainty, even as the summer travel season approaches. Airlines and hotel companies had forecasted robust growth but are now facing a weakening market.
Canadian travel to the U.S. has declined for the third straight month, falling 15.2 percent compared to April of last year. In response to softening demand, airlines have lowered fares. Major hotel chains including Marriott, Hyatt, and Hilton report slower growth and have reduced their revenue forecasts. Similarly, Airbnb anticipates slower growth in the second quarter, while Expedia has cut its projections for bookings and revenue.
Political decisions deemed unpopular—whether related to Ukraine or trade—are impacting the country’s image, resulting in a significant blow to tourism, according to Adam Sacks, president of research firm Tourism Economics. The firm now forecasts a 9.4 percent drop in international arrivals to the U.S. in 2025, a sharp reversal from its earlier prediction of a 9 percent increase.
Earlier analyses showed only a slight decline in international travel to the U.S. through April, except for a steep drop in Canadian arrivals. However, experts cautioned that the situation could worsen if economic conditions deteriorate further due to trade tensions or growing anti-American sentiment.
Increasingly, political and economic uncertainty tied to the government’s “America First” approach appears to be causing both domestic and international tourists to reconsider their travel plans. Foreign visitors are canceling trips amid threats of high tariffs on U.S. trade partners, polarizing rhetoric, and immigration crackdowns that have led to detentions at the U.S. border. Meanwhile, U.S. travelers are scaling back trips over fears of recession and job insecurity.
“U.S. demand was weak, driven by declining consumer confidence, and we are seeing pressure at key entry points into the country,” Expedia CEO Ariane Gorin told investors earlier this month.
Bank of America’s credit and debit card spending data also indicates a reduction in travel expenditures across income groups. With fewer Americans planning costly overseas trips, domestic travel—which is generally less expensive—has increased by three percentage points. According to the bank’s Summer Travel and Leisure Outlook released this week, 70 percent of Americans planning trips are opting for domestic destinations.
On the international front, arrivals from most of the top 20 tourist-origin countries, such as the UK and Germany, rebounded in April following a steep decline in March, showing a slight year-over-year increase of 0.4 percent according to U.S. Commerce Department data. The March drop was partly attributed to later Easter holidays popular in Western Europe.
Still, visitor numbers from France, typically a reliable source of tourists, remained below expectations in April, falling 12.2 percent. (Data for Canadian arrivals, the largest source of U.S. travelers, was not included.)
Sacks of Tourism Economics anticipates further declines. “We believe leisure travel will be the most sensitive segment, and we are not yet at the peak of these impacts,” he said. “I expect the effects to become more pronounced as we move into May, June, and July.”
Parisian engineer Monique Dubas, 35, canceled a planned June trip to New York to show solidarity with a French scientist denied entry to the U.S. in March after immigration officers searched his phone and found messages critical of then-President Donald Trump, according to French authorities. (The U.S. Department of Homeland Security later stated the decision was not politically motivated.)
“This is wrong and should not be accepted,” Dubas said. After paying expensive cancellation fees, she changed her destination to Mexico. “I love the U.S., but right now there are much more welcoming places to visit,” she added.
Canadian travelers represent the largest loss by far. Their arrivals have fallen sharply for a third consecutive month as many Canadians boycott the U.S. in response to tariffs and President Trump’s annexation remarks. In April, the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by car dropped 35.2 percent year-over-year, and Canadian air passengers returning from the U.S. decreased 19.9 percent, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.
The tourism sector projects a decline in international visitors that will cost the U.S. $12.5 billion in travel spending this year, dropping from $181 billion in 2024 to less than $169 billion. This represents a 22.5 percent decrease compared to the pre-pandemic peak in 2019 and makes the U.S. the only country among 184 analyzed expecting a drop in international arrivals in 2025.
“People worry about having their devices searched and facing the risk of deportation even before entering the country,” said Geoff Freeman, CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. “What’s most concerning is that so far, nothing has been done to counteract this fear and send a clear message that travelers are welcome.”
Freeman emphasized the urgent need for a coordinated marketing strategy to reshape perceptions of the U.S. before current negative views become entrenched. Highlighting upcoming events—the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence next year, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the 2028 Summer Olympics—he urged the government to set clear targets for global visitor numbers and devise plans to achieve them.
“Without a strategy, we’ll continue to react piecemeal and risk losing billions of dollars,” he warned.
The National Travel and Tourism Office, part of the U.S. government’s International Trade Administration, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Brand USA, a nonprofit destination marketing organization partially funded by the federal government, recently faced upheaval when five board members were abruptly removed by the previous administration. The organization said it is preparing to launch “a bold global tourism campaign” in June to showcase the best of America—from small rural communities to iconic landmarks—ahead of major events like the FIFA World Cup.
“Whether visiting for sports events or memorable vacations, the U.S. remains the most sought-after destination for travelers,” said Chris Heywood, Senior Vice President of Public Relations at Brand USA.
Tourism agencies in popular destinations such as New York and California have revised their visitor forecasts downward this month. New York City Tourism and Conventions began the year optimistic, projecting 67.6 million international and domestic visitors, but now expects 64.1 million—350,000 fewer than last year. Visit California anticipates a 1 percent decline to 268 million total visits.
Both agencies have launched new campaigns to counteract negative sentiment. Visit California partnered with Expedia on the “California Loves Canada” campaign, offering Canadians up to 25 percent off hotels, activities, and attractions. Similarly, New York City Tourism and Conventions is running an international campaign titled “With Love + Liberty, New York.”
Jessica Walker, President and CEO of the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce, noted that local businesses benefit from increased domestic tourism but remain concerned about the expected international shortfall, as foreign travelers tend to stay longer and spend more.
“Many businesses are still recovering from the pandemic and outstanding debts,” Walker said.
Airline fares both domestically and internationally have dropped, signaling weaker demand. Ticket prices fell 5.3 percent in March compared to the previous year according to the U.S. Consumer Price Index. For the summer, average domestic ticket prices have declined 7 percent, based on data from the Airlines Reporting Corporation, which covers about two-thirds of global sales.
Although domestic air travel has increased 4 percent this year, fewer Americans have planned international trips for the summer. Travel to the top 10 international destinations—including Mexico and Canada—has decreased 3 percent compared to last year, while all international tickets are down 6 percent, according to ARC.
The European Travel Commission, which represents tourism organizations across Europe, has announced preparations for a decline in U.S. travelers.
Major U.S. airlines such as Alaska, Southwest, Delta, and JetBlue have recently withdrawn their 2025 forecasts, citing economic uncertainty. United Airlines is reducing both domestic and international capacity and cutting routes but noted that decreased demand has been partially offset by stronger first-class bookings.
The only sector showing resilience amid economic volatility is luxury travel. Virtuoso, a luxury travel agency network, reported a 23 percent increase in summer demand. “The U.S. remains our number one destination, and domestic travel continues to be very strong,” said Misty Belles, Vice President of Global Public Relations.
Looking beyond the summer, Sacks of Tourism Economics said that the U.S. remains a highly desirable destination with unique experiences and attractions that will continue to draw visitors long after the current administration.
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