Brazil’s Lula Faces Critical Test Ahead of Historic Fourth Term Bid

Tensions between Washington and Latin America have escalated sharply, reaching levels unseen since the Cold War era. Among the region’s nations, Brazil has become a focal point of U.S. pressure. In July, the United States threatened to impose 50 percent tariffs unless Brazilian authorities ceased prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro—accused of undermining democracy following his 2022 election loss—and reversed a Supreme Court ruling regulating social media content.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva resolutely rejected these demands. Embracing a nationalist stance, he positioned himself as the guardian of Brazil’s sovereignty in the face of external interference. He declared firmly that Brazil would never negotiate as a smaller nation overshadowed by a more powerful one. The tariffs were eventually implemented, albeit with some exemptions to ease their impact. Lula’s defiance and insistence on an autonomous foreign policy have strengthened his domestic standing.

Looking ahead, Lula, who will turn 80 next year, is preparing to seek an unprecedented fourth presidential term. This election will not only shape his political legacy but also influence whether Brazil continues to uphold democratic principles or succumbs to the authoritarian trends spreading across the Americas. The stakes for both the president and the country could not be more significant.

Throughout much of his current term, Lula has faced mixed public approval. Despite low unemployment rates, inflation has remained a persistent concern. Additionally, some voters viewed his foreign policy initiatives—such as his early efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict and his sharp criticism of the Israeli government—as impractical and ineffective.

However, recent developments show a shift in public sentiment. A majority now endorse his international diplomacy and back his firm response to the U.S. tariff dispute. Polls indicate Lula leading all potential opponents in the 2026 race, including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a staunch Bolsonaro supporter considered his strongest challenger. Notably, more Brazilians express concern over a Bolsonaro comeback than over Lula’s continued presidency.

Rather than a declining leader, Lula has emerged as a resilient frontrunner. Improved consumer confidence plays a role, but the political environment is equally crucial. With Jair Bolsonaro barred from holding office until 2030, his son has moved to the United States to lobby intensively in Washington. Despite these efforts, attempts to pressure Brazil into dropping charges against Bolsonaro have backfired, with public opinion largely blaming the Bolsonaro family for the economic fallout from the tariffs rather than Lula.