Ayatollah Khamenei Faces Crucial Moment Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Last weekend’s U.S. strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, following a sustained Israeli bombing campaign, represent a significant turning point for the Islamic Republic. This escalation poses one of the most serious challenges to Iran since its 1979 establishment and places supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the center of a critical test after more than three decades of leadership marked by persistent opposition to Western powers.

The trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program and the fragile cease-fire with Israel now hinge on Khamenei’s decisions. Despite the mounting threats, he is expected to maintain a firm stance rather than yield.

Iran’s leadership is well-acquainted with the realities of war. Many senior officials—including the president, foreign minister, and top military commanders—are veterans of the protracted and costly Iran-Iraq war during the 1980s, a conflict that exacted a heavy toll in human lives and economic resources. Khamenei, who was president during much of that war and has led the country since 1989, has drawn heavily on the lessons of that brutal conflict to shape Iran’s national security strategies and worldview.

From Khamenei’s perspective, Iran remains locked in an existential struggle against the United States and its allies, including Israel. His policies—marked by internal repression, nuclear development, and backing of proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah—are designed to secure Iran’s position in this contest. His mistrust of Washington intensified following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement under the Trump administration in 2018.

The Islamic Republic acknowledges its own limitations. Its military capabilities lag behind the advanced weaponry possessed by the U.S., and its economy continues to suffer under extensive international sanctions. Moreover, recent domestic unrest reflects widespread frustration among Iranians with the regime’s ongoing resistance policy and harsh internal controls. Meanwhile, the U.S. maintains a strong regional presence, deploying tens of thousands of troops across multiple bases.

Historical patterns suggest that Khamenei is unlikely to retreat or capitulate. Though he has agreed to a cease-fire with Israel for now, this is grounded in confidence that Iran has withstood the combined pressures from U.S. and Israeli attacks. In the past, Tehran has shown willingness to negotiate and make concessions, such as entering the 2015 nuclear deal and engaging in recent nuclear talks, primarily to alleviate economic hardships.