India and Pakistan Shift Focus from Airstrikes to a Brewing Water Dispute

After a brief but intense military confrontation this month, marked by drones and missile exchanges, India and Pakistan have paused hostilities. However, tensions have escalated in a long-standing dispute over shared water resources.

In the wake of a terrorist attack in April that claimed 26 lives on the Indian side of Kashmir and triggered a four-day military escalation, India announced it would suspend a crucial treaty governing rivers that flow from India into Pakistan.

The Indus Waters Treaty, which underpins the livelihoods of tens of millions in both countries, has come under strain. India, linking the attack to Pakistan, declared it would halt its treaty obligations until Pakistan unequivocally ceases support for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan denied involvement and condemned India's move as an act of aggression.

Beyond counterterrorism concerns, analysts note that India has long been dissatisfied with the 65-year-old treaty, viewing it as disproportionately favorable to Pakistan. India appears intent on renegotiating the pact to better utilize its water allotment, addressing the demands of its large population and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change.

India's decision to place the treaty "in abeyance," coupled with vague conditions for its reinstatement, introduces significant uncertainty about the future of an agreement that has endured multiple conflicts and wars.

A complete breakdown of the treaty would have profound ramifications for both nations, particularly Pakistan, which is predominantly arid and heavily dependent on these shared water sources.