Putin Faces Uncertain Outcomes Amid Shifting U.S. Policies

President Vladimir Putin might see the prospect of a second Trump administration as advantageous for Russia.

Within a short span, President Trump has alienated key allies through aggressive tariff policies and ambiguous positions on NATO—an alliance Putin has labeled outdated. The administration’s dismantling of foreign aid and opposition to so-called “gender ideology” resonate with Russia’s own conservative agenda. Additionally, Trump’s provocative remarks about acquiring territories such as Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal appear to endorse territorial claims similar to those Putin uses to justify Russia’s prolonged military actions in Ukraine.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, Trump’s stance remains unpredictable. He has alternated between accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of initiating the war and blaming Putin for extending it. His inconsistent approach to U.S. military assistance has complicated Ukraine’s ability to plan strategically.

Driven by a desire to portray himself as a peacemaker, Trump has orchestrated a high-stakes meeting in Alaska without involving Ukraine or European nations—marking a diplomatic gain for Russia.

However, Putin should be cautious about overestimating the benefits. In an international landscape being reshaped by shifting rules, volatile alliances, and the dominance of raw power, Russia faces significant limitations. Burdened by economic challenges and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow may find itself ill-prepared to capitalize on any outcome from the upcoming summit.

Take the impact of tariffs, for instance. Russia, already grappling with economic slowdown, stands to gain little from the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports from over 90 countries. Such trade tensions risk slowing global growth and weakening demand for Russian commodities, potentially forcing Russia to reduce non-defense expenditures or dip into its financial reserves.