After months of steady progress, Russian forces are now advancing across Ukrainian battlefields at their fastest pace this year. They have intensified bombardments on Ukrainian cities, unleashing some of the largest drone and missile strikes seen during the conflict, and have even opened a new front in northern Ukraine.
This activity signals the Kremlin's summer offensive is fully underway.
Military analysts note that Russia launched its latest coordinated push this month despite Moscow’s representatives simultaneously engaging in direct peace talks with Ukraine, the first since 2022.
Specifically, Russian troops are making inroads into Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donbas region in the east, marking the fourth year of a conflict that has evolved into a war of attrition. During the winter lull, they reportedly stockpiled supplies, enhanced battlefield communications, and refined drone tactics and technical capabilities.
Although Russia has achieved some localized gains, the overall pace remains slow, and most experts do not anticipate a decisive victory this summer that would reshape the war’s course.
The escalation in Russian bombardments and rising civilian casualties are already influencing geopolitical dynamics. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has ceased praising Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened additional sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is strengthening ties with major European nations, and public skepticism in Ukraine toward Russian peace proposals has intensified.
"What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, Russia would have faced very serious consequences already—VERY SERIOUS," Trump posted on social media recently. "He’s playing with fire!"
The Kremlin has not officially acknowledged the offensive’s launch. Putin stated only that Russian forces are establishing a "buffer zone" along the Ukrainian border to protect Russian civilians from enemy incursions, reiterating that the war will end only when Russia removes the "deep-rooted causes" of the conflict—a phrase interpreted as broad demands Ukraine and its allies reject.
Despite heavy losses on both sides, Russia continues ground advances and employs combined drone and missile attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, exhaust the civilian population, and disrupt industrial capacity.
The Russian Defense Ministry justifies strikes on Ukrainian cities as a "tit-for-tat" response to smaller Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian towns, which have resulted in fewer civilian casualties.
It remains unclear how the Kremlin envisions these military actions fitting into broader diplomatic efforts to end the war, or whether Trump’s threats of increased pressure on Putin will materialize to facilitate a ceasefire.
Some Western analysts suggest Putin is leveraging the dry season, which favors offensive operations, to strengthen his bargaining position ahead of potential peace talks later this year. Given Russia’s battlefield advantage over the past two years, it would be logical to use military pressure as leverage in negotiations.
Samuel Charap, a Russia expert with the RAND Corporation, explained that Russia is accustomed to "fighting and negotiating simultaneously." He views the offensive as evidence that Russia is unwilling to accept European and Ukrainian demands for a ceasefire before securing a peace deal that meets its conditions.
Charap does not foresee immediate diplomatic breakthroughs due to the significant divide between the parties but acknowledges that increased violence does not preclude progress in talks.
He added that conflicting sides often "try to gain as much as possible before the guns fall silent."
However, many analysts, along with Ukrainian and European Union officials, argue that the ramped-up attacks demonstrate Putin’s lack of genuine commitment to peace talks, which recently resumed in Istanbul under international pressure. They contend that Russia aims not to negotiate from a position of strength but to achieve outright victory.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov proposed another round of talks in Istanbul on June 2. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov responded that Kyiv remains open to further meetings but seeks concrete ceasefire proposals from Moscow first. Ukraine has already submitted its own proposals to its allies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underscored the difficulty of diplomacy amid ongoing attacks, stating hours after one of the largest Russian air raids of the war, "Diplomacy cannot succeed amid constant strikes."
Some Russian opposition-linked analysts argue this year’s offensive may backfire, representing the peak of Putin’s military overreach. They suggest any territorial gains could unravel by year-end amid economic pressures and dwindling resources, though Russia’s military and economy have thus far weathered numerous setbacks and collapse predictions.
For now, Russian forces remain on the offensive.
This month, they have more than doubled the territory captured in April, seizing an average of 14 square kilometers per day, according to Deepstate, a Ukrainian war-monitoring group linked to the Ukrainian military. This marks Russia’s fastest territorial gains since November.
Most recent advances are concentrated in Donetsk, one of two regions comprising the Donbas, a historically Russian-speaking area central to Kremlin territorial claims. The Russian army broke through defenses between the besieged Ukrainian cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, pushing north toward the last regional logistical hubs under Ukrainian control.
Military analyst Dmitri Kuznets from the independent Russian news outlet Meduza described the attack as the start of a planned campaign to capture the remainder of Donetsk this year.
Russian forces are also making smaller gains in the Sumy region, north of the major city of Kharkiv. They are exploiting momentum after pushing back most Ukrainian troops who had occupied parts of Russia’s Kursk region across the border last year.
"The decision has been made to establish the required security zone along the borders," Putin told his ministers during a televised meeting last week. "Our armed forces are currently working on this task."
Most military analysts believe Russia lacks the resources to occupy the entire Ukrainian border area with Russia. However, the incursion into Sumy has immobilized thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, limiting Kyiv’s ability to reinforce defenses in the Donbas.
Russia also appears to have increased production and enhanced the effectiveness of its drones. Last week, Russian forces launched hundreds of drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities over three consecutive nights—the largest barrage of the war.
A small but significant portion of these weapons has penetrated air defenses, damaging industrial and civilian buildings. Analysts attribute this trend to Kyiv’s dwindling anti-air ammunition, innovations in Russian tactics, and the scale of the strikes.
Kuznets noted that Russia has improved the engines of some domestically produced versions of the Iranian Shahed drone, known in Russia as Geran. The upgraded engine allows these drones to carry heavier payloads and fly at higher altitudes, making them harder to shoot down or jam.
On the night of May 24-25, for example, Russia launched 367 drones and missiles against Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Of those, 56 breached defenses, including nine Iskander ballistic missiles.
Twelve civilians were killed in that attack, Ukrainian officials reported. The United Nations noted an increase in civilian casualties in Ukraine even before this month’s record bombardments, with over 200 civilian deaths in April—the highest since September of last year.
Kuznets said the Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities aim to divert enemy resources from the front lines and retaliate for Ukrainian attacks on Russian towns. From his perspective, the broader goal of the offensive is to convince the Ukrainian public and Kyiv’s Western allies that Russia is prepared to fight as long as necessary to win.
Whether this stance reflects Putin’s true intentions or is merely bluster remains uncertain. Kuznets suggested the offensive might be another strategic move in a high-stakes game Russia is playing with Ukraine, the United States, and Europe, a strategy that has grown increasingly unpredictable since Trump’s return to the political scene.
"He wants to demonstrate, here and now, that he’s willing to advance slowly," Kuznets said of Putin. "And he challenges his opponents: Are you willing to do the same?"
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