U.S. presidents visiting the Middle East have traditionally arrived with broad strategic visions for the region, even if those goals seemed distant.
Jimmy Carter brokered a historic peace agreement between Egypt and Israel. Bill Clinton attempted, but failed, to reach a deal with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. George W. Bush envisioned that his war on terror would ultimately lead to democratization across the Middle East. Barack Obama traveled to Cairo aiming for a “new beginning” in relations between the United States and the Muslim world.
President Donald Trump’s four-day tour of the Persian Gulf—covering Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—centers primarily on securing commercial deals. His agenda includes aircraft sales, nuclear energy agreements, investments in artificial intelligence, and weapons contracts—anything that can be sealed with a signature.
As he prepared for this first major overseas trip of his second term, Trump expressed to his advisers the desire to announce deals worth over $1 billion.
From a branding perspective, the trip aligns perfectly. Surrounded by wealthy royals and American business executives, Trump, known for his deal-making prowess, will autograph contracts and attend lavish receptions. He will walk red carpets and be treated with regal honors in a region increasingly crucial to his family's financial interests.
However, the strategic rationale behind the visit remains unclear. On his 2017 trip, Trump stunned observers by convening dozens of Muslim-majority leaders to confront and denounce extremism. This time, the foreign policy objectives—if any—are less evident.
Under the Biden administration, talks surrounding the sale of billions in civilian nuclear equipment to Saudi Arabia—including uranium enrichment capabilities—were tied to a diplomatic goal: encouraging Riyadh to recognize Israel, viewed as an extension of the Abraham Accords, which Trump hailed as a signature diplomatic achievement of his first term.
Currently, these negotiations appear to be progressing slowly as a stand-alone commercial transaction.
Trump's team insists he aims to broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Yet, with the Gaza conflict ongoing, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shows no interest in publicly embracing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Similarly, Trump’s own enthusiasm for linking up with Netanyahu is limited, reflected by Israel’s absence from his itinerary.
Though Trump had hoped to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Riyadh, the encounter did not materialize. His administration remains cautious about nuclear diplomacy with Iran, avoiding disruption of ongoing confidential talks in Oman, a country he will not visit on this trip.
“Right now, going to the Middle East is more about economic interests than strategy,” said Dennis B. Ross, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator. “It’s clear Trump enjoys trips where large deals are announced, as that is his primary concern. His focus and priority are much more on economic and financial matters.”
Instead of advancing a comprehensive strategy, the trip will highlight a series of financial transactions Trump will promote as beneficial for American jobs.
This agenda conveniently aligns with Trump’s expanding business ventures. His family holds six pending deals with a predominantly Saudi real estate firm, a cryptocurrency agreement with a UAE government affiliate, and a new luxury golf and villa project backed by Qatar’s government.
Qatar is actively courting Trump’s favor. The U.S. administration plans to accept a donated Boeing 747-8 from the Qatari royal family, intended to be refurbished as Air Force One—potentially the largest foreign gift ever received by the U.S. government, according to informed officials.
This proposal raises significant ethical questions, especially since Trump could use the $400 million aircraft after leaving office, receiving it as a donation for his presidential library. White House press officials have stated any deal will comply with the law, while Qatari officials confirm the matter is still under consideration.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar manage trillions of dollars in global assets and have grown into influential diplomatic and financial actors. Yet, their foreign policies have diverged from the U.S. in recent years, forging close ties with China, Russia, and Iran alongside their indispensable defense alliance with the United States.
For Crown Prince Mohammed, being included once again as a destination for Trump’s first major overseas journey validates his belief that Saudi Arabia is an emerging global power with gravitational pull that cannot be ignored.
When Trump visits these authoritarian states, he can expect little of the protests or hostility he would face in U.S. NATO allies like Canada or Germany, where he remains deeply unpopular.
The Gulf royal families have mastered speaking Trump’s language.
For years, Trump has boasted about his warm reception in Saudi Arabia in 2017, his first overseas trip as president. Large images of his face adorned the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, where Crown Prince Mohammed later imprisoned regime opponents. American flags lined the streets, country singer Toby Keith performed for an enthusiastic Saudi crowd, and Trump joined a traditional sword dance. At a center combating extremism, he placed his hands on a glowing orb alongside Saudi King Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Trump left office in 2021 believing the crown prince owed him a debt of gratitude. He had defended Mohammed when Western elites shunned him following the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident and columnist.
Although the crown prince denied knowledge of the killing, intelligence agencies concluded he likely approved the operation, sparking bipartisan outrage in Washington.
Despite initially pledging to investigate and act against Khashoggi’s killers, Trump ultimately backed Mohammed and claimed credit for shielding him.
“I saved his ass,” Trump told journalist Bob Woodward in early 2020. “I got Congress off his back. I got them to stop.”
The crown prince has returned the favor.
No region has been more important to the Trump family’s growing financial interests than the Middle East, especially since the January 6 Capitol attack in 2021, after which Trump and his relatives were largely ostracized by the U.S. business community.
In this environment, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former senior White House adviser, launched his own investment fund, heavily financed by Crown Prince Mohammed. Six months after leaving the White House, Kushner’s fund secured a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, making the Saudis his largest backers by far.
At the time, Trump faced his own setbacks. He was outraged when the PGA stripped his New Jersey golf course of its tournament following the Capitol riot—a blow that was deeply personal, as hosting the PGA Championship at Trump National Bedminster was a key endorsement for his brand.
Coincidentally, in 2021, the same sovereign wealth fund that invested in Kushner’s firm launched LIV Golf, a professional golf league that spent millions enticing top PGA players, challenging the PGA Tour before the two reached a preliminary partnership in 2023.
This development allowed Trump to restore his golf courses’ global prominence. LIV Golf has hosted tournaments at Trump properties for four consecutive years, boosting the international profile of his golf resorts and increasing hotel and restaurant revenues.
The Trump family has also signed deals with a predominantly Saudi real estate firm to develop projects in Jeddah, Dubai, and Muscat, Oman, among other locations.
On Tuesday, as Trump is expected to arrive, the Saudi government plans to hold an investment forum featuring White House crypto czar David Sacks and top American business leaders, including CEOs from IBM, BlackRock, Citigroup, Palantir, and semiconductor firm Qualcomm.
Crown Prince Mohammed has pledged $600 billion in investments in the United States over the next four years, though economists doubt this figure will materialize amid the kingdom’s liquidity challenges. The Emiratis have committed $1.4 trillion over ten years.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ruler of the UAE, is increasingly pursuing an independent course. The country’s growing ties with U.S. rivals such as China, as well as emerging economies like India, prepare it for a future less dominated by America.
Yet Gulf leaders appreciate Trump’s transactional style. They have found that the U.S. president does not lecture them on human rights.
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