Why Abandoning Ukraine Now Would Play Into Putin’s Hands

While President Trump’s handling of the Ukraine conflict has often been inconsistent and controversial, he correctly identifies several key issues. The ongoing human toll of this prolonged war is a tragedy, especially given the lack of decisive military gains by either side after more than three years of fighting. He also recognizes that bringing the conflict to an end could pave the way for economic growth in both Ukraine and Russia, while benefiting the global economy. Additionally, his frustration with President Vladimir Putin’s stubbornness and recent escalation in bombing campaigns reflects a genuine concern.

However, it would be a significant mistake for the United States to abandon cease-fire negotiations, as has been threatened. Such a withdrawal would likely encourage Russia to intensify its military efforts, as Putin has invested heavily in asserting control over Ukraine’s territory and consolidating his authoritarian rule. Conversely, Ukraine is unlikely to capitulate. It has strengthened its defenses, including a growing domestic defense industry that could produce millions of drones this year. Support from European allies such as Britain, Germany, and France is also expected to continue.

Instead of stepping back, there is an opportunity to increase diplomatic pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. Recent statements suggest some openness to this approach, with indications of dissatisfaction with Russia’s recent attacks and consideration of new economic sanctions against Moscow.

Both parties have incentives to contemplate a truce. Ukraine continues to lose ground, while Russia’s gains have come at a steep price in casualties and equipment losses. Over the last year, Russia has expanded its control by only a small fraction of Ukraine’s territory, suffering hundreds of thousands of soldier casualties. Such a pattern is unsustainable.

A prospective agreement might involve Russia retaining control over the territories it currently occupies in eastern and southern Ukraine, including Crimea. In exchange, the West could offer commitments to lift sanctions and refrain from NATO expansion involving Ukraine. For Ukraine, assurances of continued military and economic support in the event of future aggression, alongside deeper integration into the European economy, could provide a foundation for rebuilding and growth.