Despite Historic Declines in Crime, Many Americans Still Feel Unsafe

In a period when good news often struggles to capture attention, the significant drop in violent crime across numerous American cities stands out as a remarkable development. Current statistics suggest that the national murder rate could reach its lowest point since records began in 1960, signaling a potential new era of public safety.

Political leaders might soon seek to claim credit for these improvements, whether by highlighting stricter immigration policies or promoting law-and-order agendas. However, many Americans remain largely unaware of these positive trends, shifting their concerns from pandemic-related crime surges to issues like minor social disorder and antisocial conduct. This paradox highlights a complex dynamic in crime politics, where the reality of safety improvements contrasts sharply with public sentiment.

Last year witnessed the most substantial drop in homicides ever recorded in the United States, likely surpassing the decline seen in 2023. Cities such as Baltimore experienced a 23 percent reduction in murders between 2023 and 2024, with further decreases in early 2025—from 57 homicides last year to 39 this year. St. Louis reported a 34.5 percent decline, New Orleans 30.6 percent, and Chicago saw a 35 percent decrease in murders in February 2025 compared to the previous year, with a 49 percent reduction relative to February 2023.

These downward trends are not limited to cities traditionally known for high violence; safer cities of various sizes, including Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, are also reporting declines in violent crime.

San Francisco, once emblematic of urban disorder following the Covid pandemic, has seen dramatic improvements. In 2024, the city’s murder rate dropped by 31 percent. Other crime categories, including robbery, assault, burglary, and arson, also declined significantly. Through late May 2025, murders continued to fall by 23 percent compared to 2024, with rapes down 32 percent, robberies nearly 23 percent, burglaries 22 percent, and larceny and arson decreasing by 27 and 20 percent respectively.

These substantial reductions are viewed by many in the Bay Area as a validation of Mayor Daniel Lurie’s efforts since his election last fall, particularly his initiatives aimed at reducing crime and drug-related issues. California has adopted a tougher stance on social disorder, focusing on homelessness and substance abuse. After his first hundred days in office, Lurie highlighted notable declines in street encampments preceding the drop in crime rates. Residents and visitors alike have remarked on the transformation, with some describing the city’s revitalization as "magical" and questioning whether San Francisco has become "the cleanest major city in America."