Can Speaker Johnson Secure Enough GOP Support for Trump’s Mega Bill?

Speaker Mike Johnson confronts a critical challenge as he aims to pass an extensive legislative package embodying President Trump’s agenda before Memorial Day. Holding a slim majority in the House, Johnson can afford to lose no more than three Republican votes, assuming unanimous Democratic opposition.

The obstacle lies in the fact that significantly more than three Republicans oppose the bill, and their reasons vary widely. Some members argue that the proposed Medicaid cuts are excessively deep, while others believe they are insufficient. There is also disagreement over clean-energy tax incentives: certain factions want them eliminated, while others advocate retaining them due to their benefits for constituents. Each group’s demands often directly contradict those of another, creating a complex web of dissent.

Among the opposition are deficit-conscious Republicans numbering roughly three dozen who have coordinated through group messages and private meetings on Capitol Hill. Earlier this year, many endorsed a letter pledging to reject any legislation that would increase the federal deficit. The current draft of the bill is projected to add approximately $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years.

Another influential bloc includes Republicans representing competitive districts in states such as California and New York, where many constituents depend on Medicaid. Responding to these vulnerable members, GOP leadership has already removed two of the most severe proposed Medicaid cuts from consideration. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the legislation in its present form could result in 8.6 million additional uninsured Americans and reduce federal spending by over $700 billion across a decade.