Unseen Failures Behind the Deadly Guadalupe River Floods

When pressed about why summer camps along the Guadalupe River were not evacuated before floodwaters peaked lethally on July 4, Rob Kelly, the top local official, simply stated, “No one anticipated a flood of this magnitude.”

This answer raises questions given Kerr County, Texas’s history with flooding. As Judge Kelly acknowledged, “We experience floods frequently. This river valley is among the most hazardous in the United States.” The National Weather Service had even deployed additional staff that night and issued three escalating warnings before dawn — at 1:14 a.m., 4:03 a.m., and 6:06 a.m.

What was not initially disclosed is that Paul Yura, the veteran meteorologist responsible for ensuring these warnings gained traction, had recently taken an early retirement due to budget cuts imposed by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. His position was left vacant.

While such a cut might seem minor from a bureaucratic perspective, its impact in a flood-prone region known as Flash Flood Alley was profound. Hundreds of children stayed in riverside cabins at summer camps, relying on a system where upstream camps would notify those downstream of rising floodwaters. Yet, if the county’s highest official was not fully alerted, camp counselors—often without reliable cellphone service—were left vulnerable and ill-prepared to respond.

There is broad agreement that federal agencies require reform. However, instead of targeted and strategic adjustments, the Department of Government Efficiency enforced broad, sweeping cuts without adequately considering the critical expertise of long-term employees or the essential nature of their roles. This environment has driven many experienced civil servants with alternative options to resign. What occurred at the National Weather Service reflects a wider pattern affecting numerous federal departments.

The consequences of these reductions are not always immediately visible. Much of the damage accumulates gradually — through weakened systems left unrepaired, essential but less conspicuous responsibilities neglected, and vital services that the public relies on slowing or ceasing altogether.