Analyzing Trump’s Early Second Term: Poll Insights from Leading Commentators

Frank Bruni, an opinion contributor, moderated an online written discussion with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and opinion contributor, and Nate Silver, author and analyst known for his work on risk and polling, to examine public sentiment during the early months of President Trump’s second term.

Frank Bruni opened the conversation by expressing confusion over the polling data. Approaching 100 days in office, Trump experienced a sharp drop in approval ratings, reaching levels unusually low for a president so early in a term. However, these figures remained consistent with Trump’s historical polling range despite controversies such as executive orders, tariff strategies, and public controversies. Recently, polls have shown a slight rebound, with approval and disapproval ratings averaging approximately 45% and 51%, respectively. Bruni asked whether this should be cause for alarm, moderate concern, or cautious optimism.

Kristen Soltis Anderson noted that in today’s political climate, approval ratings rarely reach the highs seen in previous decades, making 40% the new benchmark for public support. Nevertheless, she expressed concern about weakening approval in traditionally strong areas for Trump, particularly the economy.

Nate Silver emphasized that no president is immune to declining approval early in their term, but Trump’s drop in April was notably steep, falling from a net approval of minus three to minus nine. He pointed out that nearly 10% of Trump voters are showing signs of regret, based on recent polling data.

Silver added that although Trump’s approval has recovered slightly, much of this shift correlates with tariff policies that initially caused consumer confidence to plummet to lows not seen since the 2008 recession. As some tariffs were scaled back and economic indicators improved, the stock market rebounded as well. While aides should remain vigilant, Silver suggested the situation does not yet indicate a crisis.

Bruni remarked that the presidency at times feels precarious, likening it to “playing with matches.” He highlighted that both analysts pointed to the economy when discussing approval trends. Silver’s data showed that public disapproval of Trump’s economic management exceeded approval by 13 points, trade policies were viewed negatively by a margin greater than 15 points, and inflation was disapproved of by almost 27 points.