Is Europe on the Brink of Civil Unrest?

Discussions about the possibility of civil war in the United States often arise from provocative books or films like last year’s "Civil War," yet the consensus tends to reject the likelihood of such a conflict materializing.

While American liberals frequently warn that populism or Trumpism could push the country toward division, the European context differs. In France and the United Kingdom, concerns about looming civil strife are more commonly voiced among conservative circles.

For several years, French right-wing figures and military officials have cautioned about a potential civil war sparked by difficulties assimilating immigrants from Muslim-majority countries. Notably, the controversial novelist Michel Houellebecq’s "Submission" imagines such a conflict being avoided through an unexpected conversion of French elites to Islam. A similar debate has emerged in Britain, notably after an essay by military historian David Betz argued that multicultural Britain risks fragmentation. This theme was later expanded upon by political strategist and former adviser to Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, who warned that British elites fear escalating violence from both nationalist groups and radicalized immigrants.

Skeptics of an American civil war often highlight several key realities: the lack of a clear geographic divide between factions; a decrease rather than increase in racial and ethnic polarization during the Trump era; the country’s relative wealth, aging population, and general comfort, which provide even hostile groups with vested interests in stability; and a preference for isolated acts of violence over organized communal conflict.

The European situation presents some differences. While tensions between native populations and newcomers exist on both continents, ethnic and religious divisions arguably carry greater weight in Europe. Cultural separatism tends to be more pronounced in immigrant neighborhoods around cities like Paris and Marseille than in American urban centers such as Los Angeles or Chicago, with discontent more likely to escalate into unrest.

Moreover, British and French elites have generally succeeded in preventing populist forces from gaining power. However, their methods—including not only political exclusion but also increasingly authoritarian restrictions on free speech—have eroded their legitimacy among dissatisfied native populations. This dynamic leaves both under-assimilated immigrant groups and working-class whites feeling alienated from the system, increasing the risk of political violence. Potential scenarios include clashes between immigrant or native insurgents and government forces, conflicts between immigrants and natives with government intervention, or inter-immigrant group violence, as evidenced by recent Muslim-Hindu flare-ups in English cities.