Erdogan's Latest Move Risks Alienating Key Supporters Amid Rising Opposition

More than two months have passed since Turkish authorities detained Ekrem Imamoglu, the widely supported mayor of Istanbul and a leading contender against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming presidential race. Despite the significance of this development, the international response has been notably restrained. Turkey remains a crucial NATO ally with strategic influence in Syria and a key venue for peace negotiations related to Ukraine. While Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian approach suggests Turkey may be veering toward autocracy, global actors appear hesitant to intervene.

Nonetheless, Erdogan’s grip on power could be weakening. The recent wave of protests—the largest seen in a decade—combined with diminishing support from influential political partners, suggests that the president’s aggressive tactics may have crossed a critical threshold.

Since the early 2000s, Erdogan has been a dominant figure in Turkish politics. Although he has imprisoned opponents and undermined democratic processes, he maintained considerable popular backing for many years. Elections, while flawed, still offered the opposition a chance to succeed. This changed last year when Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered significant losses in municipal elections. Discontent over high unemployment and inflation drove conservative voters toward the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which secured victories including Imamoglu’s reelection as Istanbul’s mayor.

The March arrest of Imamoglu marked a turning point: opposition figures with strong public support may now be barred from participating in elections altogether. Erdogan’s strategy appears to mirror tactics used by other authoritarian leaders. Yet, unlike some autocrats, Erdogan faces constraints—Turkey’s lack of abundant natural resources means his regime depends heavily on foreign investment, state backing, and at least passive public acceptance.

The immediate fallout from Imamoglu’s detention was severe: the Turkish lira plummeted to historic lows, and public disapproval surged, with polls indicating that 65 percent of citizens opposed the move. Large-scale demonstrations erupted nationwide. Shortly after, Imamoglu’s party held a symbolic primary, reaffirming him as their presidential candidate.

There remains a possibility that public outrage will fade into apathy by the time elections are scheduled for 2028, a calculation Erdogan may be relying on. However, signs from within his own political ranks reveal unease and dissent, highlighting potential fractures within the ruling establishment.