Poland's Election Marks a Resurgence of Conservative Populism

A seemingly ordinary photograph recently circulated online depicting former President Trump alongside Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist contender in Poland's presidential race. Nawrocki appeared somewhat awestruck, resembling a fan posing with a celebrity. There is no available footage or record of their interaction—only this brief image of the two men exchanging awkward thumbs-ups.

In retrospect, that photo carried greater significance than initially apparent.

On Sunday, a political shift in Poland echoed the global persistence of populist sentiment. While recent elections in countries such as Canada, Australia, and Romania rejected Trump-aligned candidates, Polish voters narrowly elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer, over Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw who was supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This marks a rapid swing back to the right just two years after Tusk's centrist party had gained power. The election serves as a stark reminder that populism remains entrenched, and liberal democracies continue to struggle to effectively counter it.

For liberal factions in Poland, the stakes were exceptionally high. In 2023, Tusk's Civic Platform narrowly displaced the far-right Law and Justice Party in parliamentary elections, forming a coalition government. Tusk promised to dispel the country's political darkness, positioning Poland as a beacon of democratic renewal. Yet, despite these hopes, Law and Justice still secured the highest number of votes as a single party and retained Andrzej Duda as president. The party's previous actions—undermining constitutional principles, weakening the judiciary, and manipulating the media—left it deeply rooted in Poland’s political framework, posing a persistent challenge to liberal governance.

The Tusk administration faced constant obstacles, including the threat of presidential vetoes from Duda, as it sought to undo eight years of populist policies. While it achieved progress in restoring judicial independence—thereby unlocking billions in post-pandemic European Union funding—several key reforms, such as liberalizing abortion laws, remained unfulfilled, leading to growing frustration even among some supporters.

On the international front, Poland’s position has strategic importance, sharing a lengthy border with Ukraine and standing at NATO’s eastern edge facing Russia. The Tusk government increased defense spending to nearly 5 percent of GDP—the highest among NATO members—exceeding previous demands for greater allied contributions. Poland also secured nuclear energy technology from the United States and pivoted its diplomacy toward stronger ties with Brussels. After years of tense relations with the European Union, Tusk portrayed Poland as a dependable European partner, exemplified by a widely circulated photo from May showing him alongside leaders from Ukraine, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in Kyiv. For a moment, Poland appeared central to a renewed European alliance.

However, the past two years in Poland, much like the recent U.S. political cycle, may now be viewed as a brief liberal interlude. While some institutions were strengthened and democratic norms reaffirmed, deep divisions and dissatisfaction persist. What seemed like a restoration is now at risk of reversal as political polarization endures and populist momentum resurfaces.