Poland's Presidential Election Highlights a New East-West Political Rift

Poland finds itself caught between two influential Western forces — the Washington aligned with former President Trump’s nationalist approach, and Brussels as the advocate for liberal democracy. On Monday, the country leaned toward the former as a nationalist historian narrowly secured victory in the presidential runoff.

Karol Nawrocki, linked to Poland’s populist former ruling party Law and Justice, edged out Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, following a deeply divisive campaign. Trzaskowski was backed by the centrist prime minister with strong ties to Brussels, while Nawrocki received support aligned with the Trump administration’s ideology.

Although the presidency holds limited power over domestic and foreign policy, the election result signals the persistence of Poland’s ongoing political tensions. The country is expected to maintain its military support for Ukraine and remain a critical conduit for Western arms in the conflict against Russian forces. There is no indication of any shift toward exiting the European Union.

This election underscores a wider struggle across Europe, especially in Eastern nations formerly under communist rule. Contentious issues such as migration, abortion rights, and LGBT protections continue to fuel political battles. On the right, national sovereignty has become a rallying point, opposing the European Union’s authority to impose policies perceived as conflicting with traditional values and Poland’s dominant Roman Catholic identity.

Political analyst Jaroslaw Kuisz, affiliated with universities in Warsaw and Oxford, characterized the situation as a contest between “two Wests” — two distinct centers of power with sharply contrasting ideologies.