US Airstrikes on Iran Could Shift Global Nuclear Dynamics

Nearly twenty years have passed without any new nation joining the ranks of nuclear-armed states. Recently, the United States carried out airstrikes targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities, signaling a commitment to prevent further nuclear proliferation.

It remains uncertain whether this pre-emptive military action will effectively deter Iran or other countries from pursuing nuclear weapons. Early indications suggest the strikes may provoke the opposite reaction, reinforcing the belief that nuclear capability is the ultimate safeguard in a volatile geopolitical environment.

The last country to successfully develop nuclear arms, North Korea, has not been subjected to similar military interventions. Despite international pressure to dismantle its nuclear program, North Korea is often seen as resilient. Diplomatic efforts included direct engagement between the US president and North Korea’s leader, though these talks failed to yield a disarmament agreement. In contrast, the US responded to Iran with force shortly after initiating new diplomatic outreach.

Experts warn that the risk of Iran pursuing a small nuclear arsenal may now be higher than before the recent strikes. Hard-line factions within Iran might view nuclear weapons as essential to national security, potentially pushing the country closer to crossing that threshold.

However, significant challenges remain for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, not least because any detectable progress would likely trigger further military responses from the US and Israel. Given Iran’s current political isolation and internal difficulties, its leadership may be cautious about provoking additional conflict.